A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
